Tema da Tese: Modeling Future Renewable Electricity Scenarios with Demand-Side Management in Brazil

Autor: Géremi Gilson Dranka

Orientadores: Paula Varandas Ferreira; António Ismael Vaz

Data: 10/09/2021

Programa Doutoral:  Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e de Sistemas

Abstract: The increasing search for energy pathways towards climate change and social wellbeing led to a shift of strategies and policies favoring renewable energy and energy efficiency as the main pillars of the energy transition. Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future may require long-term structural changes in the current energy planning strategies, including actions on the demand-side.
The present study makes several noteworthy contributions to the literature. On the whole, this research provides valuable insights into how the integration between Demand Side Management (DSM) resources and clean energy supply options might affect long-term sustainable energy plans. The relevance and the innovative aspects are related to the proposed modeling approach, which is expected to be unique concerning the proposed enhancements in a co-optimization model for long-term decision-making, recognizing the impact of short-term variability of both demand and RES supply, well suited to systems with a high share of RES and under different demand flexibility conditions. The objectives are explored for the case of the Brazilian sector, which can be justified by the following factors: (i) continental dimensions; (ii) high-RES share; (iii) vulnerability to climate change and (iv) access to data. Therefore, the Integrated Brazilian Electricity System Model (IBESM) is proposed with the main goal of supporting the development of sustainable scenarios for the electricity sector. This approach aims to answer how cost-optimal pathways would change with the inclusion of DSM strategies within the optimization model.
The contribution of this research also lies in the proposition of a step-by-step methodology to estimate the Long-term Average Cost of Saved Electricity (LACoSE). Findings of this study revealed a high Demand Response (DR) potential for delaying future investments in power capacity but a limited contribution for both renewables integration and load balancing purposes. Investments including energy efficiency, are projected to be more economically valuable than investing in DR strategies alone.
The proposed modeling approach would also support the decision-making process in different energy systems. The research offers significant contributions to the scientific community beyond the cases addressed in this study, not only from the possible adaptation and extension of the proposed models but also by showing the importance of the integrated supply-demand management strategy for electricity systems.